Negative interest rates may not be able to achieve the original intention footman

Negative interest rates may not be achieved using the original Sina Finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Shen Jianguang from the actual situation of the countries using the negative interest rate, the effect is not satisfactory, but there are five contradictory contrary to the initial implementation of negative interest rates, worthy of vigilance. Negative interest rates may not achieve the original intention of the 2008 financial crisis in the impact on the global economy at the same time, but also gave birth to the innovative practice of the monetary policy, quantitative easing, negative interest rates and other non conventional monetary policy is monetary policy before the crisis has never happened in the field. At present, the world has Japan, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden and other countries and the European Central Bank to implement the policy of negative interest rates, but it is slightly different from the background, the goal of monetary policy, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, Sweden’s central bank to take a negative interest rate is mainly in order to stimulate bank lending, to ease the pressure of deflation; while the Danish Central Bank, Switzerland the central bank is mainly due to fears of excessive currency appreciation, to order to stabilize the exchange rate with negative interest rates. From the point of view of the transmission mechanism of interest rate, generally speaking, a decline in interest rates will affect the real economy theory through the following five channels: one is the credit channel, namely the central bank loans to commercial banks through negative interest rates, as invisible tax, and to encourage banks to lend money, stimulate consumption and investment; two is the asset price channel, by pushing down in the long-term interest rates to stimulate short-term interest rates, asset prices, and through the wealth effect of the real economy; three is the portfolio balance channel, namely to compensate for rising costs, banks need to adjust the asset structure, increase the risk of asset allocation; four is the main channel for inflation, making inflation expectations against deflationary pressure; five is the exchange rate channel, mainly the lower their interest rates, expanding foreign currency spreads and promote the devaluation of the currency to stimulate exports and economic. However, from the actual situation of countries in the aspect of the application, the effect is not satisfactory, but there are five contradictory contrary to the initial implementation of negative interest rates, worthy of vigilance. First, there are doubts about the impact of exchange rate depreciation. As I mentioned earlier in the article, the increase in global risk aversion under the background of Japan’s implementation of a negative interest rate does not appear after the devaluation trend, but has become a global investors currency appreciation. As you can see, the yen has appreciated 13.5% against the dollar this year. And with the yen as a safe haven currency and Swiss francs in August last year, the Fed rate hike is expected to increase 811, Chinese reform expected uncertainty slump caused by the global stock market, and in 2016 after the start of the global market panic when upgrading, the Swiss franc and the yen showed a trend of appreciation. Figure 1, the yen and the Swiss Franc hedging properties of second strong, anti inflation effect is questionable. In June 2014, the European Central Bank to determine the need to cut interest rates further in addition to unconventional monetary policy, cut the deposit rate to -0.1%, the implementation of negative interest rates. But now the euro zone inflation rate of about 0, the deflationary pressure is still huge. In fact, in my opinion, the reason why the euro area has the trend of Japan is a deeper level of contradictions, such as the aging of the population, the labor market相关的主题文章:

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